On the future of the could protected areas in Brazil’s Semi-Arid conserve endangered birds facing climatic and land cover changes?

Abstract

Protected areas act as pillars on which conservation strategies are built. Besides human activities, global climate changes are an additional concern to species’ conservation. In northeastern Brazil, climate change should lead to a replacement of the current native vegetation by semi-desert vegetation. This study evaluates whether the protected areas of the Caatinga can contribute to the maintenance of suitable climatic conditions for endangered birds over time in the face of global climate changes and land cover change. We used ecological niche models as input layers in a spatial prioritization program, in which stability indices were used to weight the targets. Results predicted that most taxa (18) will have their suitability lowered in the future, and all taxa (23) will have their ecological niche geographically displaced. However, our results showed that the Caatinga’s protected areas system integrated with a set of priority areas can maintain suitable climatic conditions for endangered birds in the face of climate change and land cover change. On average, Caatinga’s protected areas system could protect climatic stability areas at least 1.7 times greater than the scenarios without it. This reinforces the importance of protected areas as a biodiversity conservation strategy.